Bill King on planning for a future where population growth is not a given
Most long-range plans in local government rest on one assumption: more people are coming. In this episode of The Clear Voice, host James Groom and Clear Vice President James Hopper talk with author and public policy researcher Bill King about what happens to cities, counties and school districts if that assumption stops being true.
King is a retired Houston businessman and lawyer who now researches and writes on public policy at Rice University's Baker Institute. He is the author of Depopulation: Our New Demographics Reality. Hopper, a former school superintendent, brings the school district side of the conversation.
Why growth can no longer be assumed
King starts with birth rates. Worldwide, the average number of children per woman fell from about five and a half in 1970 to just above two. It takes about 2.1 to hold a population steady, and King says roughly 75 percent of the world now lives in countries below that line, the United States included.
Immigration is what has kept the U.S. population growing. King points to a Census Bureau projection that, with zero immigration, the country would lose about a third of its population by the end of the century, roughly 100 million people.
What it means for Texas cities and school districts
Texas has counted on people moving in. King says domestic migration into Texas fell by about two thirds in the most recent Census estimates available when the episode was recorded, and that about 60 percent of the state's growth that year came from international immigration. He connects flat state sales tax and toll road revenue to the same trend.
Schools feel it first. King argues that, without a large increase in immigration, Texas will not have more school-age children than it has today, so districts may replace old campuses but will not need more total capacity. Hopper saw it firsthand. Around 2010 he counted about 1.8 students per household in a new development. About 12 years later the number was 0.5.
Core cities face a second pressure. King notes that in 2024 about 90 percent of U.S. growth happened outside cities of 200,000 or more, and that Houston's population inside Loop 610 is about what it was in 1960. His advice is to compete on the basics: pick up the garbage on time, fix the streets and get crime under control.
Right-size, consolidate, repurpose
King is clear that this is not a calamity. Slower growth removes the pressure to keep adding capacity and gives communities room to repair the infrastructure they already have. The costly mistake is building for demand that will not arrive. "We're going to need less of everything in the future," he says.
The conversation covers consolidating services and school districts, cities and schools planning together, and repurposing buildings that are no longer needed, such as turning a closed school into a nursing home.
What leaders should watch now
Local demographic numbers: births, domestic migration and international migration.
The dependency ratio, which compares working-age residents with children and seniors.
Ten-year enrollment and population studies, which more school districts are now commissioning.
Demand 30 to 50 years out, the working life of the school, road or water system being built.
Federal immigration policy, which King says will decide how fast the numbers change.
Episode chapters
- 00:00Introduction to depopulation and demographics
- 03:18The end of assumed growth
- 07:01An aging population and what it means
- 09:44How demographics differ around the world
- 13:09Economic effects of a declining population
- 16:45Local impacts and future planning
- 22:06Understanding depopulation trends
- 26:36Adapting infrastructure and services
- 31:19The role of technology in future planning
- 35:14Demographic monitoring and policy
- 40:11Consolidating and repurposing assets
- 41:51Closing and thanks
Questions this episode answers
What is depopulation?
It is what happens when birth rates stay below the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman. King says most of the world, including the United States, is already below that level, and that immigration is the main reason the U.S. population is still growing.
What does depopulation mean for city budgets?
Growth has let local governments spread debt, pensions and new construction across a larger tax base each year. If the population holds flat or shrinks, that cushion goes away. King's advice is to right-size operations and put money into maintaining what a community already owns.
Should school districts keep building new schools?
King argues that districts may need to replace aging campuses but should be careful about adding total capacity. He points to Houston ISD, where he says enrollment has fallen from well over 200,000 students to about 168,000, and to the ten-year demographic studies more districts are now ordering before they build.
Is Texas still growing?
Yes, but the sources have changed. King says fewer people are moving to Texas from other states and that international immigration made up most of the state's recent growth, which makes future growth depend heavily on federal immigration policy.
Learn more from Bill King
Bill King's blog on public policy and politics
Depopulation: Our New Demographics Reality, by Bill King
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